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Crime Prediction Using Auto Regression Techniques for Time Series Data

机译:使用自动回归技术对时间序列数据进行犯罪预测

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Crime is undesired anti-social behavior and poses serious threat to society. The civilized societies make everything possible to reduce crime within its regime of influence. Alarming the crime prone areas in advance is one of the best strategies for crime to be ceased to happen. The recent socio-economic developments and proliferation of internet technologies have turned the crime into a global phenomenon. In such scenario the crime data to be dealt is huge in volume, diverse in variety and highly location dependent. Hence the contemporary crime data set is highly spatio-temporal in nature where the traditional system of criminal records has failed to maintain the desired level of intelligence and make a substantial prediction. A blend of `Big data' tools for data management and Generalized Linear Regression for statistical analysis is used to draw a useable inference from such time series data set. Such enhancement is supportive to detect similar crime trends among various crime locations for criminal site selection. Consequently ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model affords to minimize the error generated in the predictive model. This research paper aims to locate the offender site in advance with more accuracy. We have explored the Auto Regression Techniques to accurately predict the crime with minimum error for such time series data by identifying the relationship among crimes attributes. The experimental result obtained using 'R' tool show that our formulation work well for all parameters and improves certainty in prediction.
机译:犯罪是不受欢迎的反社会行为,对社会构成了严重威胁。文明社会在其势力范围内千方百计减少犯罪。提前对犯罪多发地区进行警报是停止犯罪发生的最佳策略之一。最近的社会经济发展和互联网技术的普及已使犯罪成为一种全球现象。在这种情况下,要处理的犯罪数据量巨大,种类繁多且高度依赖位置。因此,当代犯罪数据集本质上是高度时空的,传统的犯罪记录系统无法保持所需的情报水平并不能做出实质性的预测。结合了用于数据管理的“大数据”工具和用于统计分析的广义线性回归,可以从此类时间序列数据集中得出有用的推论。这种增强有助于检测各个犯罪地点之间的相似犯罪趋势以进行犯罪现场选择。因此,ARIMA(自动回归综合移动平均线)模型可将预测模型中产生的误差降至最低。本研究论文旨在更准确地提前定位犯罪现场。我们已经探索了自动回归技术,可以通过识别犯罪属性之间的关系来针对此类时间序列数据以最小的误差准确地预测犯罪。使用“ R”工具获得的实验结果表明,我们的公式适用于所有参数,并提高了预测的确定性。

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