Forecasting of polluted insulator flashover based on multivariate nonlinear time series analysis

摘要

To solve the problem of the flashover forecasting of contaminated or polluted insulator, a flashover forecasting model of contaminated insulators based on multivariate nonlinear time series analysis is proposed in the paper. The equivalent salt deposit density (ESDD) is the key of flashover on polluted insulator. The ESDD value of insulator can be forecasted by the method of nonlinear time series analysis of the ESDD time series and a forecasting model of polluted insulator flashover is proposed in the paper. The forecasting model consists of two artificial neural networks that reflect relationship of environment, ESDD and flashover probability. The first is used to estimate the ESDD time series of insulator and the second is employed to calculate the probability of the flashover. A series of artificial pollution tests show that the results of the forecasting model is acceptable.