Research of Failure Prediction Bayesian Network Model

摘要

A failure prediction Bayesian Networks model (FPBN) is brought forward by expanding the traditional Bayesian network (BN) methodology and tailored to deal with failure prediction problems. In the FPBN model,the classification of network nodes: failure detection nodes,failure cause nodes and failure mode nodes,and the algorithm to initialize orientations of network edges are illustrated. Moreover,with the conditional probability distributions,the implementation of the FPBN model in failure mode prediction,failure cause diagnosis and failure detection efficiency analysis are also described in details. At last,the simulation case study of a helicopter convertor is carried out and the comparison results show that,the FPBN model could perform effectively under uncertainty.