Updating Flood Records Using Historic Water Profiles

摘要

The statistical evaluation of flood records requires long data series to extrapolate reliable peak discharges and related recurrence intervals. Often the records are extended with historical information concerning the water level. As the distribution functions are usually fitted to the discharge values historic stage-discharge-relations must be found to convert these values. Regarding the Elbe river at the Dresden gauge the history of a water course and its morphology is investigated. Using the former flow cross sections water profile calculations are carried out yielding different stage-discharge-curves for each historic period. Checking the flood stages since 1501 A.D. and the related peak discharges, resulted in reduced discharge values. The new peak discharge values allow an update of the flood records as well as recurrence periods and lead to the result that e.g. the 2002 flood seems to have a recurrence period three times longer than it was assumed up to now.