Predicting inflows to barrier lakes formed in the Wenchuan earthquake using the WEP model and TRMM-based rain data

摘要

Inflow prediction to barrier lakes formed in earthquakes is important to flood disaster warning and prevention, but it is difficult because barrier lakes are usually in mountainous regions and lack gauge data. This study tries to predict inflows to the Tangjiashan barrier lake in the Upper Fujiang River of Mianyang municipality formed during the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 by combining the WEP distributed hydrological Model and the TRMM-based precipitation estimates. At first, the DEM data with a scale of 1:250 000 are utilized to generate the digital river system in the study area (12032.25 km~2), and related land cover, soil and historical hydro-meteorological data are collected. Then, five-year daily data of four meteorological stations (one inside and three neighbouring the study area) and four flow gauge stations are applied to validate the WEP model. Lastly, the TRMM three-hourly data from 1 January to 1 July is downloaded to run the model for the prediction of inflow to the barrier lake and lake storage. The application results show an acceptable accuracy, illustrating that the combination of distributed hydrological model and spatial observation and analysis technology are useful for flood disaster warning purposes in the poorly gauged basin.