Uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL based on the GLUE method using different likelihood function

摘要

The GLUE methodology is applied to uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL, with the Xixia catchment in Danjiang River as the research area. The uncertainties of different likelihood functions, model parameters and prediction interval are analysed. It is shown that the likelihood values for different functions have differences and similarities; and, the distribution of each different likelihood function and the relationship between the parameters and the likelihood measure are affected by a shaping factor. Lastly the prediction interval characteristics of the 90% confidence level at different threshold values are calculated. It is shown that the lower the threshold value is, the higher the reliability of the prediction interval, and meanwhile the larger the range of uncertainty is. It is concluded that many factors should be considered in selecting likelihood function and threshold values.