PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAIN ABILITY OF RESTORED WATERSHEDS

摘要

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for the assessment of the hydrologic performance and design of the soil covers. The SDW model for simulating the various hydrologic processes on the reconstructed watersheds is used with the available historical record of meteorological data to estimate the maximum soil moisture deficit (MD) that various soil covers are able to store-and-release for vegetation. Frequency curves of the MD values are constructed to assess the risk of encountering various quantiles. A probabilistic approach is also used to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the model. This paper recommends procedures for frequency-based assessment and design of the soil covers needed for the reclamation strategies. The procedures take into account the climatic variability as well as the uncertainty encountered due to the use of the SDW model for estimating the soil moisture deficit.