Risk based water resources management

摘要

In this paper a risk based decision-making methodolgy is presented that allows to simulate the operational management of a complex Water Resources System (WRS), assessing the risks involved during its operation. The method has been implemented to include conjunctive use of surface and ground water. The assessment procedure is based on simulating the performance of the system using synthesized hydrological records which are adapted to the system state at the beginning of the period being assessed. Then, processing these equally likely simulations, the probabilities of final state or failure for each element of the WRS are computed and accounted for in accordance with the decision-maker criteria.rnUsing this simulation methodology system operation can be analyzed to detect operating rules that have high probabilities to produce large failures within a given foreseeable future or for long term simulation. The modeler or decision-maker can search for alternative operating rules or infrastructure configurations for which the probabilities of failure are low and the foreseeable resources will be rationally exploited to their utmost.