THE GREY THEORY BASED RESEARCH ON WATER CONSERVATION SOCIETY ASSESSMENT IN ARID REGION NORTHWEST CHINA

摘要

Water-conservation society assessment is not only an integral part of the water-conservation society construction，but also is an important tool to measure the level of water-conservation society construction.It is the basis to judge and weigh the development level of water-conservation society construction and to directly reflect the regional potential for water conservation.Moreover,it is a criterion to measure the achievement against the goal of the water-conservation society construction.The arid region in northwest China is the typical continental temperate arid and semi-arid zone，with less precipitation and severe shortage of water resources.Therefore，scarcity of water resources and how to optimally use the limited water resources to satisfy with the increasing demand have become a challenging problem for the realization of the magnificent objectives for the construction of well-off society and sustainable development of regional social economy.The construction of water-conservation society is the most effective approach for solving the water scarcity problem，and it is of three interrelated features namely efficiency,effectiveness and sustainability of water use.It is a people centered process to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of water use，to promote rational use of water resources and to reduce water pollution，to develop cyclic economy.Given the under-developed economy situation in the northwest China，under the great support provided by the Ministry of Water Resources and persistent efforts made by local water agencies and water users，a number of activities related to the construction of water-conservation society have been carried out in the arid northwest region，and the initiatives have been carried out to solve the water scarcity problem and to conserve water resources.The thesis has analyzed the distribution pattern and characteristics of water resources in the arid northwest region as well as the features of waterconservation society construction. Comprehensive consideration has been given to the principles for constituting water-conservation index such as the integrity,comparativeness and simplicity,as well as availability of regional water resources，social economy development status and eco-environmental situation.The assessment index system for water conservation society in arid northwest is created to research and measure status quo of water-conservation society construction in arid region.This assessment index system is composed of two spectrums， namely water-use sectoral assessment indexes and comprehensive economy assessment indexes， the former is composed of the industry,agnculture， domestic，ecosystem water conservation assessment indexes，and the latter is consisted of water conservation indexes of per capita GDP and per ten thousand yuan GDP. Compared with assessment index systems described in other literature，the assessment index system created in this thesis has omitted some norms and indexes that could not directly reflect waterconservation level，such as domestic water use norms，given the fact that the highness and lowness of the norms have no explicit meaning for weighing the development of water-conservation society construction，thus this kind of indexes are not involved in this thesis.It is believed that China only starts constructing water-conservation society,and the country is at the initial exploratory stage for construction of water-conservation society,thus assessment index system is not complete，with the obvious characteristics such as"some information is known， but some information is unknown"，and it is in the category of grey(half black and half white).Therefore，based on the grey classification assessment theory,the grey triangle classification assessment model for assessing water-conservation society is constituted.In order to minimize influence from artificial factors， to improve the accuracy and credibility of evaluation results，an objective evaluation method is introduced into the assessment model namely the comprehensive information entropy model to determine each index’s weight.