Uncertainty and sources of error in rock engineering

摘要

Since the first ISRM Congress in 1966 there have been several substantial developments in rock engineering focusing on new engineering tools for the analysis and design of structures in rock. One early development was the introduction of rock mass classification systems which, when combined with empirical rules, provides a framework that is still widely used for design. Another development, partially fuelled by increase in computer power, is the proliferation of numerical techniques that are routinely applied to the analysis, and visualization of the results, of complex 2D and 3D problems. Unfortunately, our understanding of uncertainty and sources of errors in rock engineering does not seem to have been developed to the same degree as these design procedures. Here, attention is drawn to the sources of error and uncertainty within these procedures, and how these might detrimentally affect our designs and management of rock engineering projects. We conclude by suggesting that rock engineering, particularly given the tools and procedures currently available and under development, would benefit from a substantial effort to properly quantify and manage uncertainty and sources of error.