Economic Significance of Geotechnical Uncertainties in Open Pit Mines

摘要

Risk assessment is a challenging task due to the need to deal with uncertainties over long timernperiods. There is a wide range of potential risk sources and the way these risks are assessed andrnmanaged is critical to the long-term success of an open pit operation. Advances in technology havernled to the implementation of larger pits which has, consequently, increased the potential economicrnimpact associated with geotechnical failures. Failure to represent geotechnical risk in monetary valuernmay lead to difficulty in obtaining support and approval (e.g. appropriate resources for geotechnicalrninvestigation) from clients or management. It is, therefore, important to illustrate the relationshiprnbetween geotechnical uncertainties and economic risk to stakeholders. Using an open pit mine casernstudy, this paper outlines a method for quantifying economic risk caused by geotechnical uncertainties.rnThe framework and procedures can be easily justified and followed. The final geotechnical riskrnestimate is objective. The method allows the impact of geotechnical failures on project value to bernpredicted. Finally, geotechnical risk in the open pit is compared with uncertainties associated withrncommodity price, exchange rate and inflation rate. This is carried out to observe how geotechnical riskrnmeasures up against economic factors that are often perceived as important variables in miningrnprojects.