Towards Next Generation Short-term Forecasting ofWind Power- The ANEMOS Project

摘要

This paper presents the objectives and the research work carried out in the flame of the ANEMOS project onrnshort-term wind power forecasting. The aim of the project is to develop accurate models that substantially outperformrncurrent state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physicalrnmodeling approaches. The project focus on prediction horizons up to 48 hours ahead and investigates predictability of windrnfor higher horizons up to 7 days ahead useful I.e. for maintenance scheduling. Emphasis is given on the integration of highresolutionrnmeteorological forecasts. For the offshore case, marine meteorology is considered as well as information byrnsatellite-radar images. Specific modules are also developed for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk estimation. Anrnintegrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', is developed to host the various models. This system will be installed by severalrnend-users for on-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale.rnThe applications include different terrain types and wind climates, on- and offshore cases, and interconnected or islandrngrids. The on-line operation by the utilities will allow validation of the models and an analysis of the value of windrnprediction for a competitive integration of wind energy in the developing liberalized electricity markets in the EU.