BUILDING A MARKET FOR SMALL WIND:THE BREAK-EVEN TURNKEY COST OF RESIDENTIAL WIND SYSTEMSIN THE UNITED STATES

摘要

Although small wind turbine technology and economics have improved in recent years, the smallrnwind market in the United States continues to be driven in large part by state incentives, such asrncash rebates, favorable loan programs, and tax credits. This paper examines the state-by-staterneconomic attractiveness of small residential wind systems. Economic attractiveness is evaluatedrnprimarily using the break-even turnkey cost (BTC) of a residential wind system as the figure ofrnmerit. The BTC is defined here as the aggregate installed cost of a small wind system that couldrnbe supported such that the system owner would break even (and receive a specified return onrninvestment) over the life of the turbine, taking into account current available incentives, the windrnresource, and the retail electricity rate offset by on-site generation. Based on the analysisrnpresented in this paper, we conclude that: (1) the economics of residential, grid-connected smallrnwind systems is highly variable by state and wind resource class, (2) significant cost reductionsrnwill be necessary to stimulate widespread market acceptance absent significant changes in thernlevel of policy support, and (3) a number of policies could help stimulate the market, but staterncash incentives currently have the most significant impact, and will be a critical element ofrncontinued growth in this market.