The Future of Heavy-Duty Powertrains, 2007 and Beyond: Engines, Hybrids, Battery Electric, Fuel Cells, and Transmissions

摘要

Over the next 15 years or so the heavy duty truck powertrain will undergo significant change. Driven by substantially more stringent emissions regulations, increased traffic congestion, and/or a shortage of skilled drivers, significant changes are expected in engine management systems, emissions control technologies, and transmissions as well as the utilization of hybrid powertrains. The pace of change will also be remarkable: it is expected that some of the exhaust treatment technologies only now appearing on the horizon may become obsolete, or nearly so, by 2020, as engines move from conventional diffusion flame combustion towards homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI). With limited investment funds, heavy-duty vehicle and engine manufacturers (OEMs) and components suppliers alike are hard-pressed to decide in which technologies they should invest and to project the magnitude of the likely returns on those investments. To help put these investment decisions in context, Global Insight and TIAX teamed together to examine the future of heavy-duty powertrain technologies. This study addresses the technical and business issues related to the evolution of the engine and transmission, the barriers that must be overcome to meet future goals, and the developments that will be required to overcome such challenges. To ensure that the conclusions are robust, this study also assesses the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in the economic, energy, and business environments. Three possible scenarios for economic, energy, and business environments are developed for the 2007 to 2020 time frame. The future fuels, technology barriers and enablers, and the commercial aspects of possible evolutionary as well as revolutionary powertrain options were analyzed and assessed in a modeling intensive process backed up by discussions with traditional component suppliers, developers of new powertrain technologies, energy companies, and OEMs. A thorough analysis of their answers yielded scenario-specific forecasts along with the rationale behind them. This paper highlights the methodology and the top-level conclusions of this comprehensive study. As such, it provides a brief overview of a forecast built upon numerous more de- tailed analyses, which will provide direction and guidance to industry strategists, planners, and investors as they place their bets on future heavy-duty powertrain technologies.