Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic

摘要

The paper describes results of an analysis of changes in seasonal precipitation extremes from a number of transient regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic, which was conducted within the ENSEMBLES project funded by the EU. It is assumed that the precipitation extremes follow the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) with time-varying parameters. The regional frequency analysis is employed to reduce the standard errors of the parameter estimates. The Czech Republic is subdivided into four homogeneous regions within which it is assumed that most uncertain parameters of the GEV model are constant. The uncertainty is assessed by bootstrap resampling. The projected increase in precipitation extremes is large for the majority of the RCM simulations and for all seasons. The uncertainty of the estimated changes is, however, considerable.