Probability-Based PGA Estimations Using Double-Lognormal Distribution: Example of the Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan

摘要

Despite a variety of models available in earthquake forecasts and seismic hazard mitigations,rnearthquakes can not be perfectly predicted otherwise the recent earthquake-induced disasters can be prevented orrnmitigated. This study presents an approach in seismic hazard assessments. The site-specific seismic hazard isrnportrayed by the relationship between an estimated earthquake motion and its annual exceedance probability. Thernapproach is characterized with the use of double-lognormal distribution. Its use in the simulation of the earthquakernmotion was verified by statistical testing. The approach was demonstrated and used to evaluate the seismic hazardrnat the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The result shows that the peak ground acceleration is estimated at 0.53 grnconsidering the annual exceedance probability equal to 1%.