Identification of Critical Risk Factors in Software Project Risk Management

摘要

The most important requirement of software metrics is to support quantitative decision of software project management. For software risk quantitative management, software metrics can also work. Combining with direct causal relationship of risk factors in software project process and Bayesian network's ability of dealing with uncertainty, we establish software project risk management framework based on metrics and Bayesian network. Critical risk factors' identification is a very important step in risk management practice; research on the identification method of the most critical risk factors is the focus of this paper. Sensitivity analysis is performed to study how sensitive the risk node's probability is according to small changes of probability parameters in the risk Bayesian network. For this kind of- risk Bayesian network that its structure and probability parameters are all known, we first estimate the most probable risk scenario, and then perform sensitivity analysis of the risk node.