REPAST MODELING SIMULATION FOR NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY EARLYWARNING ——EARLY-WARNING PARADIGM BASED ON CAS

摘要

As a part of social economy system, national energy security system obviously has characteristics of multitudinous influence factor, strong relationship between variables and existing mutual game phenomena. Complex adaptive system theory provides a new mentality and points out a new direction for the people to analyze this kind of question. On the base of appraising theory of complex adaptive system, this complex system of national energy security has been analyzed from the perspective of complex adaptive system. After analyzing the implication and characteristic of national energy security early-warning, the paper has proposed to simulate the actual movement situation of national energy system utilizing modeling method of complex adaptive system, and has introduced this simulation activity in the early-warning research of national energy security, then has established the framework of early-warning system of national energy security based on complex adaptive system. Finally the further research work has been pointed out.