PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ACCIDENTAL RELEASES FROM NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN EUROPE: METHODS AND RESULTS

摘要

The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant has shown that severe accidents in nuclear power plants can lead to large scale contamination of Europe. At present, over 200 nuclear power reactors for commercial electricity production are operational in Europe. The paper focuses on an integrated assessment of excess cancer mortality due to possible accidental releases from the European nuclear power plants. For each of these plants the probability of accidental releases per year of operation is combined with the consequences in terms of excess doses received by a person over a lifetime of 70 years. Risk estimates are restricted to cancer mortality and do not include immediate or short term deaths in the direct vicinity (< 5-10 km) of plants. Countermeasures to reduce radiation doses are not considered. Location specific risks for Europe are presented on maps. The excess mortality risk due to the combined operation of the European nuclear power plants is estimated to be about 10 × 10~(-8) per year in western Europe. In the eastern direction the risks increase gradually to over 1000 × 10~(-8) per year in regions of the former Soviet Union where reactors of the Chernobyl type are located. Risks from the nuclear power plants in eastern Europe dominate the estimated risk pattern and contribute at least 40-50% to the average risk in western Europe. Improving the reactor safety in eastern Europe could lead to considerable reductions in the estimated excess mortality risk. In western Europe the mortality risk might be reduced by a factor of two and in eastern Europe by a factor of 100 to 1000.