RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPANSION PLANNING OF COMBINED HEAT ANDPOWER ENERGY SYSTEM UNDER EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME

摘要

Combined heat and power (CHP) production is anrnincreasingly important technology for clean provision ofrnenergy because of its higher efficiency. With the effectivernof EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) in 2005, a largernnumber of existing and potential future CHP plants arernobligated to participate in ETS and target for emissionsrnreduction. Expansion planning of a CHP system isrncomplicated by uncertainties such as variable heatrndemand, volatile power market price, and emissionsrnallowance price. CO2 becomes an essential economicalrnfactor for decision making in expansion planning underrnthe climate protection policy. In this paper we representrnthe uncertainties as a set of scenarios on the hourly basis.rnWe present the long-term CHP planning model tornestimate the variable cash flow associated with thernoperation of the expanded system and apply stochasticrnsimulation for analysing the risks involved in the differentrndimensioning alternatives of CHP plants in expansionrnplanning.