BOT Risks and Their Correlations

摘要

Collecting enough revenue in Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects is the biggest concern for the associated parties. For BOT roads, usually the only income is the revenue collected from the 'toll' that is paid by the roadway users. Therefore, calculating the right tariff becomes critical, and this 'toll' price is usually the determining factor that controls the winning bid. The number and interaction of the risks involved in BOT projects create a complex contract and financial structure, and a challenging environment for the involved parties. This paper uncovers the most important risks and validates them by using survey information, related literature, and the creation of a diagram to investigate risk correlations. Strong positive correlations between the variables in BOT projects are also shown to exist. Ignoring any one of these variables could lead to the termination of an ongoing project or cancellation of a planned project. Insight is provided for the parties involved in toll road BOT projects specifically, and other BOT projects generally, about the importance of different risks and the correlation among and between these risks. The risks and correlations also provide a guide to the variables influencing the calculation of the 'toll' to achieve profitable projects.