Converting Uncertainty into Headroom

摘要

This paper describes the background to and results of a research project commissioned by United Kingdom Water Industry Research Ltd (UKWIR) and carried out by Sir William Halcrow & Partners Ltd (Halcrow) into converting uncertainty in the supply - demand balance into headroom. The research project started in May 1997 and was completed in January 1998. The outcome of the research was a pragmatic methodology, endorsed by the Environment Agency (the Agency), for converting uncertainty into headroom. This methodology has recently been published by UKWIR with the recommendation that it be used by water companies in drawing up their supply - demand balances and water resource plans for the forthcoming water industry periodic review (AMP3).