E-MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNINGAND INTERNET GROWTH

摘要

Prior research studies have shown that the Internet was growing at an exponential pace during its early stagernof growth with no predictable upper bound or saturation limit. In this paper we use popular network growthrnprediction models to track the Internet diffusion. The data that was analyzed were obtained from the InternetrnSoftware Consortium that uses a variety of sophisticated techniques to learn about autonomous systems,rndomain names and host count on the Net. We report that the exponential model is not an accurate model forrnanticipating the growth of the Internet at present. We also show that a finite saturation limit of the Internet hostrncount worldwide appears now to be in sight. Furthermore we provide critical insights into inflection point onrnInternet host growth and discuss the extraneous factors that could lead to a more optimistic growth count. Werncomment on what the findings here mean for planners of e-market systems.