Decomposition of Chinese Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2005 and its Energy Consumption Forecasting in 2010

摘要

Decomposition on the energy consumption change, which is brought about by economic structure, departmental energy intensity and departmental activity, is benefit for making energy and economic policies. China's end energy consumption from 1991 to 2005 is divided into five end departments in the research, including industry (the construction is included), agriculture, transportation (post and telecommunication is involved), commercial services and residents' consumption. The associated activity and the structure, the energy consumption and the share, the intensity of energy consumption are analyzed. According to the Chinese macro-economic development target and the policy of energy saving, the paper forecasts different energy demands in different end energy departments in 2010 from the perspective of activity effect, intensity effect and structure effect.