Lava flows impact prediction at Mount Etna by Cellular Automata

摘要

Millions of people live either on or in the surrounding areas of about six hundred worldwide volcanoes, which are known to be capable of renewed activity. The individuation of those areas that are more likely to be interested by new events is of fundamental relevance for mitigating possible consequences, both in terms of loss of human lives and material properties. Here we show a new methodology for defining flexible high-detailed lava invasion susceptibility maps. It relies on both an adequate knowledge of the volcano, assessed by an accurate analysis of its past behaviour, together with a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows on present topographic data and on High Performance Parallel Computing for increasing computational efficiency. The application of the methodology to the case of Mt Etna, the most active volcano in Europe, makes it appropriate for land use planning and Civil Defence applications in practice.