Karst spring discharge modeling based on grey system theory: A case study at Shentou, Northern China

摘要

The Shentou karst springs are representative of the 19 major karst springs in Shanxi, northern China. As the most important water supply source for Shuozhou City, Shanxi Province, the Shentou springs have an average discharge of 6.86 m3/s (between 1958 and 1999). However, the discharge of the springs has been reducing since the early 1960s. Grey system theory is applied to simulate and predict the change in discharge of the Shentou springs with time. The change in the discharge of the Shentou springs can be divided into two phases by 1985, the GM (1,1) model is used to fit the discharge change process before 1985, and grey prediction-amending model to simulate the process after 1985 and to predict the trend of the change. The prediction of discharge change between 2000 and 2004 shows that the discharge would follow the trend of increasing in future should the rainfalls at Shentou keep comparatively high as in the middle of the 1990s and groundwater in Shuozhou not be excessively exploited.