A Risk Management Approach to the Quantitative Analysis of Project Risk

摘要

This study has demonstrated the feasibility of developing a risk model to answer project or programmatic risk-related questions. The methodology employed was conceived with risk management in mind as opposed to just risk assessment. It was conceived to evaluate the impact of external risk influence factors, to account for activity dependencies, to convey sources of uncertainty, and to reveal risk contributors. The level of detail in the model permits the examination of each activity and risk-influencing factor separately. Unlike most of the previous programmatic risk studies, the risk model developed in this study permits explicit and automated identification and ranking of the risk contributors which can be readily used for the selection of risk management actions. It also serves as an important tool to evaluate the impact of risk management actions.