Competitive Risk Modelling for Population Mortality: Analysis of Environmental Influence on Human Health

摘要

Probabilistic model of age-dependent population's mortality with the decomposition to causal competitive risk factors is presented. This approach includes three competitive risk elements: genetic, environmental and others (connected with ageing). Population represents as heterogeneous aggregate with substantially different abilities to overcome the influence of external risk factors. From positions of the probabilistic approach the typical curve of age-dependent death rate is well described by a specially selected net-probability distribution functions, the laws of which were guided by general theorems of probabilistic theory and common reasons. Analysing the qualitative picture of death distribution density function it was made the assumption, that the given density function forms by at least three competing death risks. The well agreement of proposed model predictions with the statistical data is demonstrated on the mortality data of Russian population for the time period 1965―1994. Analysing time series of fatigue function parameters it was shown that modification of parameters could judge environmental influence on a death rate picture. This kind of analysis could show dynamic tendencies of genetic weight in the mortality and help to explain the reasons of mortality tendencies and make prognoses for the future.