Seismic Hazard Estimation Based on Results of Active Fault Investigations

摘要

This paper presents a new method of estimating the seismic hazard from in- land active faults. It has the following features: (1) Using data from the active fault investigation, it estimates both the event-occurrence probability and the probability density function (PDF) of the magnitude based on the time-predictable model. (2) Without considering the fault length, it calculates the probability of exceedance versus the seismic intensity, i.e., the seismic hazard. The outline of the method and a case study for the Tachikawa Fault near Tokyo are presented.