The Formula for Estimating the Deadline of Vaccination to Prepare for an Epidemic: Application of Decision Analytic Approach to Surveillance Data at the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Kobe City, 1995

摘要

The epidemic of influenza is of major public health concern. On January 17, 1995, Kobe experienced the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake with plenty of victims and damages which produced confusion in the influenza surveillance system. We conducted a decision analysis based on the decision-tree model whether the vaccination for influenza should be performed or not in terms of maximizing life expectancy under the risk caused by the vaccination. As a result, we theoretically formulated the decision level at which the benefit of the vaccination overcomes the risk of it. The obtained mathematical formula will be helpful for decision makers who wonder when the influenza vaccination should be performed for the high-risk groups under the disaster circumstances in which the surveillance data suggest the influenza epidemic is highly likely to be predicted to get serious.