Estimating the Risk of Aircraft Collision due to Loss of Planned Longitudinal Separation in the North Pacific Routes

摘要

This paper deals with the longitudinal collision risk of an oceanic route in the North Pacific (NOPAC) in view of the feasibility of a 50 NM longitudinal distance-based separation. Since no factual data are available for the assumed environments under consideration, the empirical data obtained in the current NOPAC environments were used for the analysis. The time-based separation data were transformed to the distance-based separation data to estimate the longitudinal overlap probability for the route system where a 50 NM minimum longitudinal separation is to be applied. The longitudinal collision risk for the system was estimated. The results suggest that the risk could be less than 5 x 10~(-9) [accidents/flight hour] under certain conditions.