To what extent can behavioural change be the answer to emissions reductions emanating form UK transport sector oil consumption? A Semi-parametric structural time series analysis

摘要

This work presents new evidence on the price and income elasticities of road transport fuel in the UK (1960-2005), and indirectly also upon the maximum potential range that travel demand can feasibly be changed by using behavioural type measures. The evidence is derived from an econometric study applying the structural time series model and using the Kalman filter (see for example Hunt et al, 2003) to measure changes in travel behaviour as a result of non-price factors/policies. This is based on the premise that the stochastic trend represents systematic behavioural responses by the market to (i) changes in energy efficiency resulting from technical progress, and/or (ii) attitudinal responses to increased knowledge/awareness of the environmental impact of certain types of transport.