EUROPEAN ENERGY TARGETS FOR 2020:THE RISK TO DISPLACE TRADITIONAL INVESTMENTS

摘要

In January 2007 the European Commission proposed an integrated energy/climate change package that addressed the issues of energy supply, climate change and industrial development. Short thereafter, the European Heads of State approved the plan and agreed to an Energy Policy for Europe. The plan called for very ambitious targets in terms of renewable energy penetration, increase in energy efficiency, reduction in GHG emissions and percentage of biofuels component in vehicle fuel by 2020. These targets are very ambitious: today only 8.5% of energy is renewable. To achieve a 20% share by 2020 will require to all Member States major efforts across all sectors of the economy. On 23 January 2008 the European Commission put forth an integrated proposal for Climate Action. To achieve the renewable energy policy goals, the European Commission has proposed a Directive aiming at establishing binding national renewable energy targets to achieve a 20% share of renewable energy of energy consumption in 2020 and a binding 10% minimum target for biofuels in transport to be achieved by each Member State. rnThe aim of the paper is to evaluate the possible negative outcome of the European policy for renewable energy and energy efficiency promotion in terms of displaced investments in the fossil fuels sectors. The growing demand for electricity and gas is forcing European Governments to ensure the investments in grid infrastructures and supply plants in order to achieve security of supply in the next years. These investments/infrastructures have a very long technical and economic life and thus require many years of operation to be remunerated. This was not a problem in the past, as the demand for energy has grown steadily in Europe in the last century. Nevertheless, the success of the European policy for sustainability, with its ambitious targets for 2020 could curb the demand for fossil energy, even reducing it in some cases. The paper looks at the evolution of demand for electricity and gas in Italy in the coming 15 years, identifying the investments which could be critical in terms of risk of not achieving the required level of investment remuneration. rnA proper planning of investments can help the implementation of the European policy, which is too important to be misguided.