A POLICY ORIENTED MODEL SYSTEM FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF LONGTERM EFFECTS OF EMISSION REDUCTIONS ON OZONE

摘要

A methodology has been presented for the assessment of long-term effects of emission reductions on ozone concentrations in Belgium at low computational costs. Results for various scenarios show some important trends. The average values (ADM) are hardly changing or show a slight decrease. The indicators with a low cut off as threshold value (AOT40) show a slight decrease. Both trends are confirmed by observations between 1989 and 1999. Indicators representing peak values (e.g. NET60 and AOT60) decrease significantly for the various policy scenarios. From the measurements these trends are not clear, since the annual variation are dominated by the varying meteorological conditions. For the scenario's considered the regression method gives accurate results for the ADM and AOT40 indicators, but less accurate results for the AOT60 and NET60 indicators.