CONTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL CO_2 EMISSIONS PLEDGES TO BIOENERGY EXPANSION: A LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIOENERGY SECTOR USING TIAM-FR MODEL

摘要

The consumption of fossil energy is the major source of CO_2 emissions and each country makes a greatrneffort to diversify their energy mix to achieve their targets of CO_2 emissions by replacing fossil energy by cleanerrnenergy sources including bioenergy. In this context, global bioenergy market increased drastically during lastrndecades. According to IEA, bioenergy trade reached 120-130 PJ for liquid biofuel and 75PJ for wood pellets by 2009.rnIn addition, under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 161rncountries of 189 parties have already submitted their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) tornmitigate climate change as of 4th April 2016, including CO_2 emissions pledges. At the 21st conference of partiesrn(COP), was held in Paris, France in December 2015, a new international climate agreement was created based onrneach country’s INDCs to keep the global average temperature increase below 2 ℃ or 1.5 ℃ for some countries.rnHence, bioenergy market is expected to be further expanded in the future for the reason of mitigation of climaternchange as well as a new energy and agricultural market. In this study, we estimated the role of CO_2 pledges and/or thernfuture international climate agreement for bioenergy sector expansion using bottom-up energy system optimizationrnmodel, TIAM-FR, a TIMES family model from ETSAP/IEA. Through the results, we analyzed global bioenergyrndevelopment of different types of final bioenergy as solid and liquid bioenergy as well as different biomassrnfeedstocks.