SHORT AND LONG-TERM SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF USING WATER STORAGE POOLS FOR AGRICULTURE OF GORGANRUD WATERBASIN

摘要

Short and long term impacts of off-river ponds and their interactions with the river and amongrnthem on agriculture stakeholders’ socio-economic indices will be a supplementary factor inrnoptimum pond design. To account for pond-river system operation in assessment of socioeconomicrnimpacts of ponds construction, a model capable of integrated modeling of pondrnand river system is necessary. By modeling of pond-river system, especially, for long termrnanalysis with a model, optimum operation of pond-river system for best achievement in waterrnsupply can be determined. Then according to water supply, cultivated land area and otherrndependent socio-economic indices, like; production and net income can be estimated andrnused for ponds’ socio-economic impacts assessment.rnIn this research, a real world case in north east of Iran, Siyahjuy river and its ponds, are analyzedrnby this methodology for socio-economic impacts assessment. A 10 year analysis of these riverpondrnsystems shows that by changing from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture by using the waterrnstored in ponds, meaningful improvements can be achieved in the system. This improvementrnin terms of production per unit cultivated area is 90% and the net income per unit cultivatedrnarea is 21% in upstream region of Siyahjuy in comparison with current state. Besides, WEAPrnanalysis shows, in dry years when river flow decreases up to 25%, pond-river system can bernmanaged in a manner to limit the reduction in net income and production to 15%.