An Advanced Diffusion Model for Display Panels of Mobile Phones

摘要

The global sales of mobile phones grow rapidly. The function of mobile phones has increased from having one-megapixel resolutions to having high quality of image. In this work, we investigate the marketing dynamics of successive generations of mobile phones by using an advanced diffusion model. The adopted model considers effects of non-uniform influence, asymmetric diffusion, and heterogeneity of the population of potential adaptors on the marketing dynamics. It thus could properly account for the diffusion phenomena in display panels of mobile phones. The adopted model forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation and is solved numerically to estimate the growth in the display panels of mobile phones. Parameters of the dynamic growth model are first optimized with respect to the collected data in the past decades for the best accuracy verification. This study not only provides a basis for assessment but also enables us to forecast the influence of recent technologies on earlier ones. Furthermore, we perform the Fisher-Pry plot to test for substitution in the sales of display panels of mobile phones between different generations. The simulated results compared with the realistic data validate the theoretical findings, thus indicating the ability to forecast the overwhelming growth of marketing dynamics among generations.