Method for Developing Consistent Future Energy Scenarios as Input for Transmission Expansion Planning

摘要

The power supply faces new challenges due to the integration of a high amount of renewable energy sources (RES), the reduction of conventional power plants (CPP) and the introduction of new technologies like electric vehicles, power-to-x applications etc. in the power grid. These developments are uncertain and depend mainly on technological progress and political framework. To ensure secure, reliable and economic power supply in the future, the transmission grid needs to handle the altered requirements. Designing, constructing and commissioning of new transmission lines is an elaborate process. Hence, transmission system operators (TSOs) need to take investment decisions for new equipment under uncertainty. Consequently, these uncertainties need to be considered adequately in the planning process. This paper proposes a method to develop consistent future scenarios for generation and load. The approach takes into account the actual generation park including the localization of all sources and sinks. For each scenario, the occurrence probability is determined.