Forecasting Self-Consumption Solar Power Capacity of Industry and Business Sector in Thailand: a System Dynamic Model

摘要

The future of solar Photovoltaic (PV) technology is bright. Not only solar PV is a clean energy but also has its price dropped and has its efficiency improved significantly since 1975. Thus, investing in solar PV is feasible and attractive nowadays. In Thailand, industrial and business sector are the largest power consumers which have an opportunity to reduce electricity cost and promote Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) by using solar PV. So, installing solar PV as Isolated Power Supply system (IPS) of companies in the industrial sector reduces electricity consumption from the grid. This would cause a problem in demand forecasting for electricity in the grid. Through a questionnaire survey, this research aims to develop a system dynamic model to understand the dynamic behavior of factors that affect the solar PV capacity, and forecast the monthly solar PV capacity growth from 2018 to 2022 of the industry and business sector in Thailand.