Economic impact of photovoltaic power forecast error on power system operation in Japan

摘要

In this study, we analyzed the operational situation and cost for Tokyo Electric Power Company's service area by 2030, when a high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources will have been attained. Day-ahead unit commitment and real-time economic dispatch simulation were carried out by taking into account photovoltaic power yield forecasts and errors. The analysis allowed us to evaluate the economic impact of forecasting errors from VRE sources on the annual supply and demand balance within the target area. The analysis also showed that the use of day-ahead forecasting reduced the amount of unserved energy and shrank photovoltaic power yield curtailment in real-time operations.