Simulation and prediction of hurricane Lili during landfall over the central gulf states using MM5 modeling system and satellite data

摘要

A mesoscale modeling investigation of tropical cyclone/hurricane forecast over the Gulf of Mexico has been established under the NASA/HBCU Renewable Energy and Technology Project to adopt the numerical weather prediction model for possible use in regions where solar equipment will be used. Accurate and reliable forecasting is crucial in regions that have limited resources where renewable solar energy can be utilized. Devices such as solar cookers and solar Sterling engines can be effectively operated under adequate sunlight in converting solar energy to cook food. The study also involves in understanding the structure and dynamics of land falling tropical cyclones over the Gulf coast under the project - Diversity in Atmospheric Science through Research Application and Partnership (IDAS-RAP) with NWS/NOAA. Cloud cover, temperature, radiation, and precipitation are major factors that help the operation of such devices; therefore weather conditions must be predicted fairly well in advance so that appropriate measures may be taken to protect solar assets. A case study on Hurricane Lili 2002 (September 21-October 4) has been modeled to show changes in weather conditions that could affect solar-energy utilization. The PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate the storm's formation and development, and predict its track and intensity change. The simulation was for a period of two days during October 3 and 4 when hurricane Lili made landfall over the coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi. Model configuration includes two nested domains of 85×85 and 91×91 dimensions respectively. Inner domain is two-way. The outer domain of grid size 27 km is positioned over the Gulf of Mexico region, and the nested domain of grid size 9 km closer to the coast of LA-MS. Objective analysis is done using NCEP ADP Global Surface Observations. Model predicted compared with aircraft observations taken by the National Hurricane Center and noted reasonably good agreement. The present study will aid in determining weather conditions well in advance so that early warnings can be issued and damage to life and property can be averted.