Economic and mathematical modeling to optimize competitive renewable technologies expansion plan

摘要

This paper presents results of modelling of power sector expansion problem in terms of heat and electricity output production by renewable energy technologies (RETs), which are treated as competitive within a local power complex and/or integrated power system. The model uses the budget projections implied by national or local scenario of RETs' financing. The modeling approach exploits the basic principles of classical economics, based on ideas of Kantorovich and Leontief: the technologic activity and the ingredients; the funds, products and labor comprise ingredients. To construct the two-product model (heat and electricity) the technologic activities (TAs) are differentiated into three groups: a) renewable TAs representing heat production and combined cycle generation, b) electricity production technologies, and 3) TAs representing the external power system reserve capacities used to support dependable electricity generation. The presented Kantorovich model is capable to “reallocate” the projected investments, committed for the development of new generation technologies, with respect to estimated specific capital intensity ratios and intensity values of considered TAs.