Multi-state Markov Model for Reliability Analysis of a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant

摘要

This paper presents a reliability analysis of a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant. A Multi-state Markov model is introduced for a two-shaft CCGT where combustion turbine and steam turbine are coupled to a proper generator. The model is a suitable representation for both base load unit and intermittent operating unit. By using the model, such reliability characteristics as Forced Outage Rate, Equivalent Forced Outage Rate, etc. can be easily calculated. Sensitivity analysis for reliability data uncertainty is also provided. The numerical example based on real world combined-cycle power plant is presented in order to illustrate the model application.