Demand forecasting associated with electric vehicle penetration on distribution systems

摘要

This paper proposes a methodology for forecasting the electrical power demand associated to the penetration of electric vehicles on a distribution system. The simulation model is framed in a temporal and spatial base that considers a more detailed analysis of some demographical aspects and technical characteristics of the electric vehicles. This approach allows the assessment of the impact of such penetration in the different areas of a city, considering that each part of the network will have several consumption behaviors. Additionally, it gives the advantage to easily develop multiple case studies by adjusting driver pattern probabilities, electric vehicle characteristics, geographic and demographic parameters of the city and even charging scenarios.