Research on the Development Model for Oilfield Resources Environment System

摘要

The paper introduces the principles and methods of system analysis and appraisal to the research of oil-gas resource and social economy system coordinated development.According to the common thought of system coordination analysis and appraisal,it divides the large-scale system into a multi-level system which contains: oil-gas resourceful system,population system,economic system,technique system and environmental system.It analyzed the factor,correlative relationship,function and mechanism of sub-system.It applies the theory and method of system dynamics into the simulation research of oil-gas resource and social economy system coordinated development.According to the correlative relationship of the system,it constructs the SD(system dynamics)model of oil-gas resource and social economy system coordinated development,carries out validity and rationality checkout with data from 1999 to 2006,and finally simulates various developing schemes brought forward the petroleum industry and economy in the future,which can find out the most rational developing scheme in the future.The paper carries out the beneficial exploration of oil-gas resource and social economy system coordinated development.Nowadays,under the situation of sustainable social development,companies are faced with environment problem which has become an important issue in operation,so green ecotypic construction of oilfield plays an important role in the long-term development of oilfield and the whole regional economy.Sustainable coordinated development theory requires population,resources,environment and economic development maintain regular dynamic coordination in a region.Many foreign scholars have carried out research about the evaluation model of sustainable coordinated development.Using endogenous growth model,Young-Seok Moon studied the relation between energy consumption and economic growth,and emphasized the government's control.Konstantion Bithas and Peter Nijkamp put forward a modeling method for environmental-economic coordination model which used expert knowledge system under uncertain information conditions.There are many domestic scholars also have carried out many useful explorations in these research areas.WANG Yu-qi,HU Yun-quan and ZHAO Da-wei etc.carried out system analysis and simulation for sustainable development of the oil industry in virtue of SD,and made a series of valuable and leading research production.LIU Yan and WANG Yu-qi used system dynamics theory and took the characteristics of the oil industry into consideration,they explained the causal relationship of the sustainable development of oil industry,and construct the system dynamics model of sustainable development of oil industry.WANG Zhi-kun and ZHANG Zai-xu etc.studied the establishment and application of systematic dynamics model for petroleum exploration and development.BAI Hua and HAN Wen-xiu studied deeply on the coordination mechanism of the compound system of regional economy-resources-environment,and quantified the static and dynamic coordination degree of the compound system of regional economy-resources-environment,and then they proposed a static coordination management method which was based on the behavior matrix.ZENG Rong and WEI Yi-ming etc.utilized system theory to propose the concept that complex systems including population,resources,environment and economy develop harmonically,and illustrated the structure characteristics of the complex systems,internal coordination mechanism of each subsystem and the development of systems.System dynamics method is based on the control theory of sate-feedback,through establishing structured system model with causation and carrying out digital simulation with computer,it can synthetically study mechanism of the whole motion of system from two aspects including quality and quantity.In virtue of system dynamics method,through analyzing the mechanism of informational linkage and feedback,this paper considers the comprehensive coordination of all sorts of factors and how to promote the sustainable coordinated development of oil field systems' ecology,accordingly,proposes theoretical guidance for formulating the strategy of sustainable development of China's economy and oil industry.