Prediction of onset of south west monsoon using multiple regression

摘要

Indian economy and agriculture is dependent upon the performance of southwest monsoon. In view of the importance of monsoon, a methodology is developed to predict the onset date of southwest monsoon over Kerala, the first entry point of southwest monsoon over Indian main land mass based on the weather data for the period of 1971 to 2012. Here multiple regression method is employed to forecast the onset dates. The data for the period 1971-2000 is used for model development period and the data for 2001-2012 is used to test the model. The model error of multiple regression method is 0.00 for the development period -0.5 for the testing period respectively. The standard deviation (SD) of the actual onset is 6.6039 and our system has error less than this SD and hence proves to be efficient.