Coal Demand Forecast Based on Consumption Structure Partition

摘要

In order to forecast total coal demand of China, this paper divides consumption by sector in detail, including Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery and Water Conservancy, Industry, Construction, Transport, Storage and Post, Wholesale and Retail Trades, Hotels and Catering Services, Other Sectors, Household Consumption. Then, this paper forecasts coal consumption value until next decade by collecting 1980-2010 coal consumption data and choosing ETS and Holt-Winters forecasting models from multitudinous models. At the same time, combining with the historical data and predicted results, different trends of total and proportion of coal consumption has carried on the detailed analysis and explanation of each sector. Finally, total coal consumption forecast value is obtained by combining the results of two univariate forecasting models. Empirical results show that by 2020, total coal demand is 4.7 billion tons of china. Therefore, the implementation of energy conservation and emissions reduction, improvement of energy efficiency, development of new energy and other measures are more help ensure the sustainable development of China.