Reliability Prediction of Machining Center using Grey System Theory and GO Methodology

摘要

According to the fact that the existing reliability prediction technology cannot well reflect the effect of processes under different operational conditions on reliability due to neglecting changes of reliability and failure rate with using time, a practical reliability prediction analysis model considering various operating conditions of the components of machining center is proposed by combining the grey system theory and the GO methodology. This method is used in reliability prediction of hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device (TAED) in machining center. Firstly, through a systematical analysis of hydraulic system of TAED in machining center, its basic structure model is summarized, and the model of GO chart for the hydraulic system is established. Then, the grey dynamic prediction for the hydraulic system is derived based on GM(1, 1) model combining the GO methodology. Finally, the availability and precision of this method in the analysis and reliability prediction of the hydraulic system of TAED in machining center is verified by comparing the calculated result of this method with that of the traditional static GO methodology and the FTA. This approach provides a theoretical basis for the prevention of failures of the hydraulic system of TAED in machining center, the improvement of the system reliability and security, and the development of security controls.