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A Study on Relationship between Analysts#039; Earnings Forecasts Accuracy and Recommendations Investment Value

机译:分析师盈余预测准确性与建议投资价值之间的关系研究

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From a firm-year perspective, sorting all analysts issuing forecasts for a firm into quartiles, with analysts' forecasts samples exceeding 7700 and stock rating samples exceeding 21000, this paper tests relationship between analysts' earnings forecasts accuracy and recommendations investment value by computing the characteristics and daily returns of the long and short portfolio of each quartile. The results show that there is no strictly positive correlation between forecast accuracy and recommendation profitability. It is also found that superior earnings forecasts does not certainly facilitate superior investment recommendations. In the long portfolios, the third quartile reported highest daily abnormal four-factor adjusted return, which is 0.081%.But it has little difference with the first quartile. The lowest daily abnormal four-factor adjusted return is reported in the second quartile, which is only 0.016%.
机译:从企业年度的角度出发,将所有发布企业预测的分析师分为四分位数,分析师的预测样本超过7700,股票评级的样本超过21000,本文通过计算特征来检验分析师的收益预测准确性与建议投资价值之间的关系以及每个四分位数的多头和空头投资组合的每日收益。结果表明,预测准确性与推荐获利能力之间没有严格的正相关关系。我们还发现,出色的收益预测并不一定能促进出色的投资建议。在多头投资组合中,第三个四分位数报告的每日异常四因素调整后收益最高,为0.081%,但与第一个四分位数几乎没有差异。在第二个四分位数中,最低的每日异常四因素调整后回报率最低,仅为0.016%。

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