Research on highway alignment decision-making based on complex system risk analysis

摘要

Highway project construction is a complex system. The choice of highway route plan is the key job in decision-making and design phase before the construction of highway project. The highway alignment decision-making includes a lot of uncertain risk factors in the complex environment, the uncertain risk factors have characteristic of the dynamic change, the multiple risk factors action, cross-coupling effect , non-structural problem decision-making. For the traditional highway alignment decision-making is not adapt to sytematacially reflecting all kinds of risk factors in the complex system ,as well as the transmission relationship of the effect of the risk factors. In order to solve the Problem, a new method is put forward, which is based on fuzzy influence diagram theory. This paper constructs a fuzzy influence diagram model about the risk decision of high-way alignment plan by the establishment of risk influence diagram and risk space. A case is given to illustrate to application of the model. The model is concise and clear in process of risk decision, and not only it is beneficial to construct information communication channels between risk analysts and decision makers by influence diagram ,but also it reduced the statistical data collection of the probability distribution in probability influence diagram evaluation, that is a rather difficult work in engineering practice. So it expanded the usable range of influence diagram and enhanced its practical applicability.